In short, my updated current thinking is that both Apple and OpenAI are making the bet that very large language models are becoming increasingly commoditized, which means that Apple doesn’t have to pay to get access to one, and OpenAI sees scale and consumer mindshare as the best route to a sustainable business.
To put it another way, and in Stratechery terms, Apple is positioning itself as an AI Aggregator: the company owns users and, by extension, generative AI demand by virtue of owning its platforms, and it is deepening its moat through Apple Intelligence, which only Apple can do; that demand is then being brought to bear on suppliers who probably have to eat the costs of getting privileged access to Apple’s userbase.